to the proposals. European Central Bank to begin thinking about winding down its quantitative easing program. These themes are expected to continue largely undisturbed during 2018. UK outlook, uncertainty will again be a crucial element surrounding the 2018 UK outlook with important political and economic variables with a Brexit deal needing to be completed by late 2018 in order to ratify a deal by early 2019. The European Central Bank is set to reduce the scale of its monthly bond purchase from 60 billion to 30 billion in January and, it is hoped, will sign off on a complete wind-down of the program some time just before or after September 2018. There is a concern that those problems are simply being shored up for another day.
The minimum bid rate, the main Eurozone interest rate, is set. There will, however, be important concerns whether the programme is sustainable given the number of bonds held by the central bank. Krpatas base case is obviously that the latter possibility is avoided, which is not a new idea.
There is an expectation this will only continue further and tomorrow is a crucial time to see the extent to which this will occur. Such an outcome would lead to sharp selling pressure on Sterling and the Euro. With bund yields still very compressed and likely to remain compressed until the Italian elections in March 2018 (as was the case ahead the French Presidential elections earlier in 2017 there is room for a possible bund tantrum-like price action and a higher Euiro, Krpata. Australias Dollar has risen by half a percent against the US Dollar in 2017, but has fallen.0 against the Euro. The RBA will take its time with the normalisation of its monetary policy, not least in order to avoid a stronger appreciation of the AUD, which could jeopardise the achievement of its inflation target, Nguyen adds. The deposit rate Krpata writes of is currently set at -0.4, deep in negative territory, which means the ECB currently charges banks.4 to deposit funds with it overnight. Or Italians can vote for a disruption of the established order entirely, and a possible referendum on the Euro, by backing the 5 Star Movement (M5S) in sufficient measure to propel them to a majority in both Italys chambers of parliament. The outlook is, however, likely to become more challenging during the year as interest rates gradually increase across all the major economies. There is likely to be a further gradual increase in US and global interest rates as global economies finally return to more normal conditions.
Euro Australian Dollar Forecast "Embrace the Strong Euro" say ING, Forecast EUR/USD 50 Currency / Economy Forecast for 2018 International
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